Development and testing of s set of mathematical models for travel demand estimation

Abstract

Regional traffic models are a useful tool in planning transport infrastructure in keeping with anticipated human settlement patterns and activities. The amount and nature of travel depend on the population size, income level and type of employment etc in the region. Therefore, by correlating the trip generations with socio-economic parameters, it is possible to develop mathematical models to predict the travel demand in terms of socio-economic variables. The objective of this study is to develop a family of trip generation models for the Colombo Metropolitan Region to estimate travel demand for work, education and other purposes by available motorized forms of transport. While the main focus is on estimation of bus passenger demand, another set of models is calibrated estimate aggregate demand for bus, rail, car, motor cycle and three - wheeler travel. Finally, a mode choice model is developed to estimate the variation of bus passenger modal share for work trips in terms of availability of rail and private vehicles. The regression facility available with SPSS V.1 0 software was used for the calibration of the models. Statistical testing methods such as R2 value, F-statistic, t-statistic and residual analysis were used to identify the best predictor models. The calibrated traffic generation models can be used for estimating future trip generations in the Colombo Metropolitan Region. In addition, these models may be used for trip generation estimates for other geographic regions after validating for such regions.