Abstract:
In Sri Lanka Ceylon Electricity Board plays the role of the system controller by
dispatching the energy generated from different power plants to meet the energy
demand. Power generation from renewable energy sources such as wind, mini-hydro,
solar etc is becoming increasingly popular due to environmental concerns. With the
introduction of the net metering system a large number of rooftop solar power
systems are getting connected to the national grid.
However, it is not possible to predict the energy generation of solar power plants in
advance. Therefore, the system controller has no information about the tomorrow’s
possible energy availability from these non-dispatchable power plants. Then the only
option left with the system controller is to reserve the costly thermal power plants in
order to meet the future energy demand. The outcome of this research enables the
system controller to predict the possible energy generation from solar power plants
based on the weather forecasts. This will provide the system controller with
predictions on energy generation and capacity of solar power plants connected to the
grid. These predictions will enable to prepare the dispatch schedules accordingly.
In this study, the effect of the geographical and meteorological parameters for
predicting daily global solar radiation in Sooriyawewa, Hambantota is investigated.
A multiple linear regression was applied to explain the relationship among solar
radiation and identified geographical and meteorological parameters such as cloud
cover, sunshine duration, precipitation, open air temperature, relative humidity, wind
speed, gust speed, and sine of declination angle. Variables in these equations were
used to estimate the global solar radiation. Values calculated from models were
compared with the actual measurements to validate the model. The application of the
model to other geographical locations should be carried out as a further study when
sufficient data is available for such locations.
