Abstract:
Unpredictable events can have a major impact on real estate, yet they are often overlooked in many
property decisions. This research looks at linking property market analysis to Black Swan (BS) Event
theory, a term made famous by Taleb (2008) as those unpredictable disastrous events which have three
key characteristics: rarity, extreme impact and retrospective predictability. The research takes the
form of a narrative synthesis applying a literature review approach to define an extensive range of BS
events into a conceptual framework so as to measure the impact on property markets with reference to
risk and uncertainties.
For property asset managers, this is important as BS events can be related to the impact on
Place/location and Space/operation. To improve the resilience and reduce vulnerability towards these
events, property strategies can embrace new disaster management research and so lower the impact of
Place risk, although improved connectivity makes global organisations more vulnerable to space risk
failure after a major BS Event. In this paper, BS management models are funnelled to the antifragility
concept, as a positive sensitivity to increases in volatility. Finally, the study offers a conceptual
framework of illustrating the relationship between BS effects and its respective fragile and antifragile
strategies.
