Abstract:
Long term energy sector planning is essential for a country to acquire sustainable development in all its social, economic and environmental dimensions. Further it will ensure the energy supply security of the country. Energy supply side needs to deal with technical, economic and environmental assessments of all energy supply options such as natural resources, energy imports, energy exports, etc. Also the energy supply side should follow policy directives of the government and should take all other related constraints in to account. Similarly the demand side too has to deal with the assessment of future energy needs of various consumption sectors, policy directives, etc. Sri Lanka being a country scant of fossil fuels mainly depends on imports of petroleum and coal. Even though coal is used for electricity generation only, petroleum products are being used for variety of applications. Further, at the moment Sri Lanka does not deal with Natural Gas (NG) to fulfill its energy needs. However, potential NG fields have been found in Sri Lanka during the recent past. Therefore analyzing the viability of using NG is a timely requirement. The software MESSAGE was used to model the energy chains associated with Petroleum, Coal and NG. The model was validated by comparing it with results of LTGEP of CEB and results of the initial natural gas utilization road map. Under results, modernization of the existing refinery, introducing NG to the energy sector, and introducing electric vehicles have become economically viable options in the long run. Further, coal has become the most economical option for electricity generation. In addition, construction of a urea plant has become more economical than importing urea. This model can be used in the planning stages of introducing a new technology, new energy source, or any other major change in the energy sector.
