Abstract:
Sri Lanka is one of the developing countries in South-Asian region where Agriculture
remains the mainstay of economy and approximately 33% of the total labor force is
engaged in Agriculture. Production of rice is the most important activity and
cultivation of other cereals, vegetables and fruits are also prominently in the economy
of Sri Lanka. Therefore it is very important to analyze the agricultural information for
the purpose of formulating policies and also enhancing the knowledge of farmers to
encourage them to be in the Agriculture. In this context, production, price
fluctuations, forecasting, seasonal indices and the factors which could affect for these
variables are highly important. In this project, four upcountry vegetables namely
potatoes, beans, carrot and cabbage were selected and, an attempt was made to
develop a web-based information system, which can be used for effective decision
making on expected harvest of selected crops with the utilization of lands, according
to Agro-ecological measures and demographic characteristics and also on seasonal
indices and time series forecasting to educate farmers, consumers and other interested
parties as well. The regression models for estimated harvest were developed with the
use of SPSS statistical software from the raw data collected from a sample survey
conducted in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara-eliya and Badulla districts. The information
system will provide users to select key variables by district, crop and the season and
any of pre-defined categories of independent variables identified by each model and
then visualize the expected harvest. The seasonal indices and most appropriate price
forecasting trend lines were generated by considering monthly prices for a period of
2001 to 2010. These three measures would be a total solution that is available in the
system for effective decision making.
