Abstract:
With the growing energy demands and depleting fossil fuel deposits world is moving
towards renewable energy. Solar energy has become a focus on this transition, especially in
tropical countries where solar power harvesting is economical. The major disadvantage of
solar power is its intermittent behavior due to cloud movement. Several researches are
ongoing to predict the solar power in different temporal and spatial resolutions as a solution
to this drawback.
This research discusses on a short term solar prediction model using total sky images
captured with a specifically developed hardware. A MATLAB software model is developed
using image processing techniques to track and predict cloud movement throughout the
visible span. The cloud movement behavior is mapped with the output current of a fixed
solar panel to develop the prediction algorithm. The developed software model is capable of
predicting the solar panel output on real time total sky images with a 10 second temporal
resolution. Additionally, the model parameters can be fine-tuned to predict the solar
irradiance for a different location.
