Economic risk analysis of housing and civil engineering projects

Abstract

“Far better an approximate answer'to the right question which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise. John W. Tukey, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, vol. 33, 1962, p.13. 1.1 Background The World Bank in its report on Project Performance stated that about 20% of the development projects completed between 1974 and 1986 determined to be unsatisfactory (see Fig. 1). The “satisfactory” projects between 1974 - 1984 were based on the were • achievement of at least a 10% economic rate of return; • other significant benefits if the economic rate of return was lower; evaluator’s qualitative judgement about the performance if no economic rate of return was calculated.

The classifications for 1985 and 1986 were based on achievement of one of the following • wholly satisfactory : project achieves or exceeds all its major objectives, achieves substantial results in almost all respects; • satisfactory : project achieves most of its objectives and has satisfactory results with no major shortcomings; • marginally satisfactory : project reveals major shortcomings in meeting objectives .and/or achievements but is still considered worthwhile.