Forecasting the global export market potential of ceramic glazed tile industry

Abstract

In the global business arena, there is an intense competition, both in the world-wide and domestic marketplace. Due to this competition, business bodies of all sizes and varieties have more concern over market movements. It is important to foresee the market rather than arbitrarily competing. When we consider the benchmark of ceramic glazed tile business, it seems that China has managed to grow its market share rapidly in almost every region, and India also seems to be growing their business rapidly. Manufacturing of ceramic glazed tiles is one of the key businesses in Sri Lanka. The main intention of this analysis is to evaluate the ceramic glazed tiles market and develop a model to forecast its potential export opportunities in the coming years. This model of foreseeing the global export potential can help companies in making strategic decisions such as resource level decisions, setting objectives and evaluating performances, investing, exiting from current market, expanding, and venturing into new markets. Based on secondary data extracted from United Nations statistical division for international annual trading, we concluded that the Sri Lankan export market is highly reliant on Australian and North American markets. However, taking construction growth rates and worldwide trading figures into consideration, it is apparent that Sri Lanka has more opportunities in other regions. Based on the VAR model output, it could be concluded that the market will grow by CAGR 6 % (Benchmark 8.3%), 3% (Benchmark 17.1%) and 2% (Benchmark 15.8%) in the Africa, Asia and Middle East regions by 2024 where there are more opportunities. Other than these regions, Oceania, South America and North America are expected to grow by CAGR 10 % (Benchmark 2.8%), 8 % (Benchmark 4.8%) and 0.3 % (Benchmark 20.4%) respectively and there is more opportunity to expand current business in the Oceania region in the coming years.