Statistical analyses to validate the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts for Sri Lanka

Abstract

The WHO/ISH (WHO/ International Society of Hypertension) risk prediction charts have been used widely by South East Asian Countries. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts provide approximate estimates of cardiovascular risk in people who do not have established coronary heart disease, stroke or other atherosclerotic diseases. Based on the 10-year risk of fatal or non-fatal major cardiovascular events according to age, gender, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, presence or absence of diabetes and total serum cholesterol level. However, it has not been validated for the Sri Lankan population. Thus this study was initiated to validate the above mentioned WHO/ISH risk prediction chart for cardiovascular diseases using the database maintained at the Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya for 10 years (2007 - 2017). The major risk factors for cardiovascular diseases are age, gender, higher blood sugar level and higher systolic blood pressure when considered individual effect on cardiovascular(CV) diseases from each risk factor. In both risk prediction methods (risk prediction with serum cholesterol readings and without serum cholesterol readings), the majority of the population had a <10% risk of a fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event. Risk of cardiovascular diseases in the same population increased with age. Males had a significantly higher cardiovascular risk than females. The risk classification using total serum cholesterol was a better prediction chart than the one without it.