Cost overrun assessment for green construction project

Abstract

Green construction projects are initiated in complex and dynamic environments resulting in circumstances of high uncertainty and risk, which are compounded by demanding cost and time constraints. This paper describes a systematic way to consider and quantify uncertainty in green construction process based on LEED rating system adopted by Indian Green Building Council (IGBC). The system incorporates knowledge and experience acquired from many experts, project-specific information, decision analysis techniques, and a simulation model to predict risks for different green ratings in the construction schedule at the initiation of a project. The model provides sensitivity analyses for different outcomes wherein the effect of critical and significant risk factors can be evaluated. The study focuses on lessons learned from past projects and describes a risk assessment process involving typical inputs and expected outputs. The paper also investigates practical applications of risk management in green construction industry.