Connectivity Analysis as an Alternative Predictor of Transit Demand: A Case Study of the Railway Network, Sri Lanka

Abstract

Rapidly increasing traffic congestion in urban and suburban roads raises the urgent need for an efficient railway service in Sri Lanka. In studies on rail transportation planning, however, travel demand has often taken a back seat to design and engineering features; perhaps due to the lack of adequate data availability. Taking its cues from this insufficiency, this study explores the potential of using “Connectivity Analysis” to serve as an alternative methodology of travel demand forecasting. The connectivity of railway stations in termsof railway and road access were computed separately by using ‘Connectivity Analysis’ and by analysing the relationship with travel demand for stations within the railway network of Sri Lanka. Results revealed a significant correlation between transit demand and the connectivity of railway stations, such that connectivity values have the capability to explain over 77% of the variation in rail transit demand. Therefore the study suggests that the “Connectivity Analysis” method can serve as an alternative predictor of transit demand, in the absence of good, quality data on trip-making and employment trends.