Study on climate elasticity of runoff in Kirindi oya and Maduru oya basins in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Water management decisions commonly depend on long-term precipitation trends, however, they are also affected by monthly to seasonal runoff variability and climate change impacts. A review summarizing the findings related to climate change impacts on runoff in the dry zone is carried out and presented in this article. This study is based on the climate elasticity of runoff in Kirindi Oya and Maduru Oya basins. Water scarcity as well as unpredictably of high-intensity rainfall events affect basin runoff generation. This paper used the HECHMS model to analyse the basin response and non-parametric estimation of the elasticity of climate parameters to runoff for ensuring reliable future predictions using available limited data sources. Hypothetical climate change scenarios have been used to study the relationship between runoff and climatic variables by comparing the change in runoff over a period for each parameter. The resulting analysis will provide further insights into the relative benefits of investments toward improving runoff monitoring versus improved climate forecasting.