Investigating community resilience to climate change : application of economic models

Abstract

Climate change is a significant issue in the present which impacts the economic status of communities by affecting their livelihoods. To investigate the problems of climate change on communities, economic models of climate change can be regarded as a suitable application, as they provide the parameters and climatic conditions to be considered. Thus, this study aimed to contribute to enhancing the community's resilience to the economic impacts of climate change in Sri Lanka through the application of economic models. Five climatic conditions, seven firsthand influences of climate change, and 25 parameters under four categories to determine economic impacts have been identified through a systematic literature review. This research adopts interpretivism philosophy and pace through a qualitative research approach to derive an abductive conclusion. Data collection has been conducted in four stages; preliminary interviews, focus group discussions, key informant interviews and expert interviews respectively. Stages 01 and 04 of data collection followed the survey strategy while Stages 02 and 03 aligned with case studies within low country wet zone tea and paddy industries. The findings were analysed using content analysis, and cross-case analysis. Finally, two causal loop diagrams (CLDs) have been developed for two cases. The findings revealed temperature and rainfall as the two main climatic conditions varying in Sri Lanka, while low country wet zone mainly suffers from rainfall variations. Despite the benefit of lowering the irrigation cost, climate change poses common and unique challenges for both tea and paddy growers. Six and four strategies for building resilience have been identified for tea and paddy growers respectively. Seven and six closed loops have been identified within the CLDs for tea and paddy respectively. The findings provide an influential understanding for decision makers to derive policies and the developed CLDs can be benchmarked in system dynamic models. Keywords: Climate change, Economic impacts, Livelihoods, Causal loop diagrams (CLDs), Systematic Literature Review (SLR)