Simulation of plausible hazard scenarios associated with dam failures: case study on Kantale dam, Sri Lanka

Abstract

Dams serve as critical infrastructure for water supply, irrigation, flood control, and power generation, but their failure can lead to catastrophic consequences, including loss of life, property damage, and environmental degradation. This study aims to simulate potential breach scenarios of the Kantale Dam using hydraulic modeling to assess flood impacts and enhance disaster risk management strategies. The research employs hydraulic modeling and simulation techniques, specifically HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System), to predict flood scenarios resulting from dam breaches. Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and GIS data are used to model the reservoir's geometry and simulate the flood propagation, providing detailed insights into flood behavior and affected areas. The analysis explores multiple breach scenarios, highlighting their impact on downstream communities, particularly the town of Kantale. The study’s findings demonstrate how simulation-based approaches can enhance early warning systems, improve emergency preparedness, and inform land-use planning to mitigate disaster risks. By developing a predictive model, research provides a valuable tool for policymakers, engineers, and disaster risk managers to optimize disaster management strategies and minimize the socioeconomic impacts of potential dam failures. The study contributes to the broader field of disaster risk management by advocating for the integration of advanced simulation techniques in dam safety assessments, thereby promoting sustainable disaster preparedness and resilient infrastructure planning.