Development of a set of trip generation models for travel demand estimation in the Colombo metropolitan region

Abstract

Estimation of demand for travel is very useful in planning transport infrastructure in keeping with anticipated human settlement patterns and activities. The amount and nature of travel depend on the population size, income level and type of employment etc. Therefore, by correlating the trip generations with socio-economic parameters, it is possible to develop mathematical models to predict travel demand. The objective of this study is to develop a family of trip generation models for the Western Province in Sri Lanka, to estimate travel demand for work, education and other purposes by available motorized forms of transport. While the main focus is on estimation of bus passenger demand, another set of models is calibrated estimate aggregate demand for bus, rail, car, motor cycle and three - wheeler travel. Finally, a mode choice model is developed to estimate the variation of bus passenger modal share in terms of availability of rail and private vehicles. The calibrated traffic generation models can be used for estimating future trip generations in Western Province at Divisional Secretariat Division level. In addition, it is possible to use these models for trip generation estimates for other geographic regions in Sri Lanka after validating the models for the new study region.