Connectivity analysis as an alternative predictor of transit demand: a case study of the railway network, Sri Lanka

Abstract

RapidlY increasingtraffic congestionin urban and suburban roads raises the urgent needJor an efficient raillvay servicein Sri Lanka. In studies on rail transportation planning, boneuer, travel demand has often taken a back seat to design and engineering[eateres; perhaps due to the lack of adequate data availabiliry. Taking its cues from this insufftcienry, this stucjy explores the potential of using "Connectiviry.Analysis" to serve as an alternative methodology of travel demand Jorecasting. The connectiviryof railway stations in termsof railway and road accessuere computed separatelY f?y using 'Connectiviry.Analysis' and f?y anaIYsingthe relationship with travel demand Jor stations Ivithin the railzvay nellVork of Sri Lanka. Results revealeda significant correlation betueen transit demand and the connectiviryof raihvay stations, such that connectiviry values have the capabiliry to explain over 77% of the variation in rail transit demand. Therefore the stuqy suggests that the "Connectiviry .Analysis" method can serve as an alternative predictor of transit demand, in the absence of good, qualiry data on trip-making and emplqyment trends.