An assessment of the validity of ‘metronamica’, for the study of the interactions between the land use pattern and the transportation systems in metro Colombo area

Abstract

Understanding cities is always challenging due to its complexity that is attributed to different reasons. It is believed that as understanding on cities improve; we become wiser about the ways in which we need to intervene in their growth and function. Hence, a thorough understanding of land use changes is important for planners to make better informed decisions when they deal with the challenges surging from continuous urban growth. Although the need seems too general, the importance is critical in relatively complex growing situations such as the city of Colombo and its surrounding metropolitan region especially with the ongoing and proposed infrastructure and urban development projects. However, the existing planning processes do not reflect such comprehensions, partiallyattributed to the absence of strong urban simulationtools. Several computer applications with urban simulation theories and conceptsare developed to model the said complexity of cities. Applicability of such modeling frameworks in complex growth situations was always challenged. This study developed a framework to test the validity of the projective modeling framework in studying the dynamics of land use changes with Metronamica application in Sri Lankan context. Metronamica is a cellular automata based land used simulation modeling application which is recognizedin the fields of urban simulation modeling and planning. Metronamicamodel offer a good platform to study land use dynamics. It allows a wide range of data which causes for the dynamics of land use patterns such as accessibility, physical suitability fordifferent land uses, zoning regulations and the interactions between thelanduses.Therefore this model has the capability of modeling the complex nature of dynamics of land uses. The model is set up and calibrated for the period of 1987 to 2010. Spatial data on land use and population are collected for start year and the end year of the calibration period. Simulation results are assessed and validated using visual comparison and statistical methods and usability assessment is conducted with the participation of a representative group of key practitioner and academia in the field of urban planning for further verification of the applicability of the model.