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Yaffee, R.A. and Mc Gee, M.(2003), Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting, with applications of SAS and SPSS, Academic Press, INC. 91 Appendix A ln (G ol d P ri ce ) Year Month 201520142013201220112010200920082007 JanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJan 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8 Monthly Gold Price Figure A1: Log value of monthly gold price Figure A2: Correlogram of 𝐷[𝐺𝑂𝐿𝐷 𝑃𝑅𝐼𝐢𝐸] 92 Figure A3: The histogram of residuals of 𝐷[𝐺𝑂𝐿𝐷 𝑃𝑅𝐼𝐢𝐸] Figure A4: Normal probability plot of residuals of 𝐷[𝐺𝑂𝐿𝐷 𝑃𝑅𝐼𝐢𝐸] 93 Figure A5: Correlogram of 𝐷[𝐿𝑛[𝐺𝑂𝐿𝐷 𝑃𝑅𝐼𝐢𝐸]]- Model 1 Figure A6: Normal probability plot of residuals of 𝐷[𝐿𝑛[𝐺𝑂𝐿𝐷 𝑃𝑅𝐼𝐢𝐸]]-Model 1 94 Appendix B G ol d P ri ce Year Quarter 201520142013201220112010200920082007 Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 Time Series Plot of Quaterly Gold Price Figure:B1 Time Series plot of quarterly gold price from 2007, January to 2015, December In fl at io n R at e Year Quarter 201520142013201220112010200920082007 Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1 25 20 15 10 5 0 Time Series Plot of Quarterly Inflation Rate Figure:B2 Time Series plot of quarterly of inflation rate from 2007, January to 2015, December 95 E xc h an g e R at e Year Quarter 201520142013201220112010200920082007 Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 Time Series Plot of Quarterly Exchange Rate Figure:B3 Time Series plot of quarter values of exchange rate from 2007, January to 2015, December Figure:B4 Regression model results for quarterly values of three variables 96 Appendix C