Impact of fluctuations in global crude oil prices on economy of Sri Lanka with a special reference to tourism and agricultural sectors

dc.contributor.advisorMathugama, S
dc.contributor.advisorJayasundara, DRT
dc.contributor.authorLavindika, DAD
dc.date.accept2024
dc.date.accessioned2025-06-23T09:52:51Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractThis research is to focus on the complicated relationship between the economy of Sri Lanka and the price variability of crude oil on a global scale, including tourism and agriculture sectors by itself. This study is carried out using the secondary data from annual reports since 1984 till 2023. The results analyzed by econometric analysis, which is conducted using data as an input in EVIEWS and SPSS, aim at ascertaining the dimension of oil price volatility’s impact on these sectors. The results demonstrate that, along with the oil price volatility, there is a strong connection between the contribution of agriculture to GDP and Tourism sector revenue. ARMA models for both sectors yielded notably intriguing insights. Autoregressive relation in both agriculture and Tourism Sectors have highlighted the instinct connection of current level with the previous ones. Autoregressive relation in Tourism Sector has stressed the level of future final sales depends on the level of profit earned in the past. Agricultural trend analysis displays declining trend despite the one significant role it has in the economy. For that contrast, tourism revenues’ foreseen trend shows in increasing trend over the years and the volatilities can be assigned to uncontrollable, external factors such as war, COVID-19 pandemic etc. In brief, this study argues that global crude oil price fluctuations, in a way, either harm or help the economy of Sri Lanka depending on the conditions. While the agricultural sector needs strategic planning and resilience measures under increasing oil prices, the tourism sector is inherently stable and risk absorbing.
dc.identifier.accnoTH5634
dc.identifier.citationLavindika, D.A.D. (2024). Impact of fluctuations in global crude oil prices on economy of Sri Lanka with a special reference to tourism and agricultural sectors [Master's theses, University of Moratuwa]. Institutional Repository University of Moratuwa. https://dl.lib.uom.lk/handle/123/23709
dc.identifier.degreeMSc in Business Statistics
dc.identifier.departmentDepartment of Mathematics
dc.identifier.facultyEngineering
dc.identifier.urihttps://dl.lib.uom.lk/handle/123/23709
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONDITIONS-Sri Lanka
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE-Sri Lanka-Trend Analysis
dc.subjectTOURISM-Sri Lanka-Trend Analysis
dc.subjectPETROLEUM-Prices
dc.subjectAUTO REGRSSIVE MOVING AVERAGE
dc.subjectMATHEMATICS-Dissertations
dc.subjectMSc in Business Statistics
dc.titleImpact of fluctuations in global crude oil prices on economy of Sri Lanka with a special reference to tourism and agricultural sectors
dc.typeThesis-Abstract

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