System dynamics approach to identify the factors that affect in determining fuel pricing and vehicle pricing in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Implementing sustainable transportation policies is crucial for countries in worldwide to address environmental concerns and meet global targets. In Sri Lanka, the lack of a clear transportation policy has resulted in the absence of any goals for fuel and vehicle pricing, hindering progress towards a sustainable transportation system. To address this issue, a System Dynamics (SD) approach was used to develop a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to visually represent the interdependence and interactions of variables in the transportation system, including socio-economic factors, environmental factors, fuel and vehicle factors, and government policies. The CLD identified five loop behaviours: three balancing and two reinforcing loops. The results showed that SD could be used as a reliable tool to guide policymaking in the transportation sector, including fiscal instruments, consumer information, and regulatory measurements for fuel and vehicle pricing.