Assessment of climate change with special reference to the magnitude and temporal variability of the extreme climate events across Sri Lanka

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a critical global challenge, characterized by increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events. This research focuses on the impacts of climate change on extreme rainfall events in Sri Lanka, a country highly dependent on agriculture and particularly vulnerable to climate-induced natural disasters. Recognizing the limitations of traditional methods for identifying extreme precipitation trends, this study adopts an innovative approach by integrating multiple ETCCDI indices. By combining these indices, the research provides a holistic and nuanced understanding of extreme rainfall patterns, offering valuable insights that are beneficial across sectors such as agriculture, disaster management, and climate policy. The study addresses the evolving challenges of agricultural planning by re-demarcating Sri Lanka’s Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs). This re-demarcation incorporates a range of critical factors, including yearly catchment runoff, irrigation infrastructure, land use dynamics, and administrative boundaries. By integrating these diverse elements, the research establishes a comprehensive and adaptive zoning framework that better reflects contemporary climatic, hydrological, and socio-economic conditions. The refined AEZs aim to optimize land use, enhance agricultural productivity, and improve disaster risk management. The findings of this study hold significant implications for climate adaptation and sustainable development. They provide actionable recommendations for targeted interventions and evidence-based policy-making, helping to build resilience among vulnerable communities and sectors. Ultimately, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of climate change impacts and offers pathways for addressing its challenges effectively