Development in information system for enhancing upcountry vegetable cultivation in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Sri Lanka is one of the developing countries in South-Asian region where Agriculture remains the mainstay of economy and approximately 33% of the total labor force is engaged in Agriculture. Production of rice is the most important activity and cultivation of other cereals, vegetables and fruits are also prominently in the economy of Sri Lanka. Therefore it is very important to analyze the agricultural information for the purpose of formulating policies and also enhancing the knowledge of farmers to encourage them to be in the Agriculture. In this context, production, price fluctuations, forecasting, seasonal indices and the factors which could affect for these variables are highly important. In this project, four upcountry vegetables namely potatoes, beans, carrot and cabbage were selected and, an attempt was made to develop a web-based information system, which can be used for effective decision making on expected harvest of selected crops with the utilization of lands, according to Agro-ecological measures and demographic characteristics and also on seasonal indices and time series forecasting to educate farmers, consumers and other interested parties as well. The regression models for estimated harvest were developed with the use of SPSS statistical software from the raw data collected from a sample survey conducted in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara-eliya and Badulla districts. The information system will provide users to select key variables by district, crop and the season and any of pre-defined categories of independent variables identified by each model and then visualize the expected harvest. The seasonal indices and most appropriate price forecasting trend lines were generated by considering monthly prices for a period of 2001 to 2010. These three measures would be a total solution that is available in the system for effective decision making.