From Climate variability to digital twins: building resilience in Sri Lanka’s coconut supply chain

Abstract

(Cocos nucifera), are the second largest crop in Sri Lanka, cultivated across 4.4 million hectares, contributing around 0.9% of national GDP [1]. As a multipurpose crop, it generated significant economic wealth, with Sri Lanka ranking as the fourth largest exporter of coconut products. National production ranges from 2,500 to 3,000 million nuts annually, with significant monthly fluctuations [1]. Despite this substantial production capacity, coconut yield remains below their potential capacity and unmeet the demand due to different risk factors. Agricultural supply chain, including coconut cultivation, is impacted by five primary types of risks: production risk, market risk, institutional risk, personal risk, and financial risk [2]. Recent studies highlight production risk as the most significant, given its cascading impact on downstream supply chain processes and its potential to amplify other risk types. Production risk affects the unpredictability of natural growth processes of crops influenced by weather and climate, pests and diseases, and soil conditions [3]. In tropical countries like Sri Lanka, weather and temperature conditions are crucial determinants of crop productivity [4]. The study focuses on the 'Coconut Triangle' districts (Kurunegala, Puttalam, and Gampaha) that significantly contribute (51.8%) to national yield for research with span of three primary agro-climatic zones: dry, intermediate, and wet. Understanding how climate variations affect coconut yield and predictive yield in these regions is essential for developing proactive risk management strategies. Coconut has emerged as a trending commodity in recent years due to pronounced price volatility in both local and global markets, attracting renewed research interest in the sector. Concurrently, the agricultural research community is increasingly focused on building resilience within supply chains through the adoption of emerging technologies. Given these imperatives, this study aims to analyze the impact of climatic variations on coconut yield in Sri Lanka's major producing districts and identify critical weather parameters to inform the development of a Digital Twin-enabled resilience framework for the coconut supply chain.