Analysis of electric vehicle adoption in Sri Lanka : techno-economic and environmental perspectives

Abstract

As a developing nation in Asia, Sri Lanka has become increasingly reliant on fossil fuel-based energy since the late 1900s. The transportation sector, in particular, heavily depends on fossil fuels, contributing significantly to environmental degradation and rising fuel demand. While battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have emerged globally as a sustainable alternative, Sri Lanka has yet to experience a major shift in BEV adoption. This study aims to theoretically assess the techno-economic and environmental feasibility of switching from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to BEVs in the Sri Lankan context. It also compares the environmental impact of BEVs with hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and ICE vehicles available in the local market. A techno-economic model was developed using survey data. The Nissan Leaf was selected as the representative BEV, while the Toyota Aqua and Toyota Vitz represented the HEV and ICE categories, respectively. Using the net present value (NPV) method, the levelized cost of mileage (LCOM) was calculated. Results showed that the Nissan Leaf had the lowest LCOM at 14.72 LKR/km, followed by the Aqua at 24.26 LKR/km, and the Vitz at 31.27 LKR/km. The Toyota Vitz has the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, at 0.261 kg CO₂/km, according to the life cycle assessment, followed by the Toyota Aqua with emissions of 0.153 kg CO₂/km. However, despite higher production-phase emissions from battery manufacturing, the Nissan Leaf has the lowest emissions, measuring 0.108 kg CO₂/km. Over their lifetime, BEVs are the most environmentally friendly choice due to the notable decrease in operational phase emissions. In conclusion, BEVs are both economically and environmentally advantageous, particularly if Sri Lanka can further decarbonize its electricity grid. A greener energy mix would enhance the sustainability and appeal of BEVs as a viable transport solution for the country.